Fair question: Do the O's have enough in the back-end of their bullpen?

Ryan Helsley led MLB in saves in '24 but had some struggles last year

When the Orioles won 101 games and the AL East championship in 2023, right-hander Felix Bautista, a pitcher at that time with not much experience, locked down the end of the games for Baltimore.

He posted an ERA of 1.48, had an 0.918 WHIP and 33 saves with a remarkable average of 16.2 strikeouts per every nine innings.

He finished 11th for the American League Cy Young Award.

New Baltimore closer Ryan Helsley has been there and done that in his career, posting a 12th place NL Cy Young Award finish in 2022 and a ninth place in 2024.

But after his struggles of last year he can’t be considered a sure thing in the ninth inning until we see him consistently do it for the Orioles this season. And also see that his struggles with his fastball from last year are over.

If Helsley has struggles this year or heaven forbid spends any time on the injured list, where would the O’s turn in the ninth inning?

Fair question to ask.

Andrew Kittredge has 21 career saves, Yennier Cano has 15 and Keegan Akin 11. But combined, that trio’s career total of 47 doesn’t match the 49 Helsley himself recorded in 2024 when he led the majors in saves.

The Orioles just don’t have much depth in the ninth if their preferred closer has any problems this season.

That doesn’t mean the ninth is going to be an issue for the team. Just look at Helsley’s three-year track record from 2022 through 2024.

In that span he produced a 1.83 ERA with a 0.954 WHIP with 82 saves in 95 chances for an 86.3 save percentage. Over 152 games in those seasons, he averaged 3.2 walks per nine with 12.1 strikeouts. He allowed just 5.4 hits per nine, 0.5 homers and produced a 34.6 K percentage.

Pretty darn good, yep.

But in 2025, including his late-season struggles after he was traded from the Cards to the Mets, he went 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 21-of-30 saves. Over 56 innings, he gave up 61 hits with a 1.536 WHIP. He allowed 1.3 homers per nine with 4.0 walks and 10.1 strikeouts per nine.

Those numbers will not likely be good enough for the 2026 Orioles.

But what he did those three seasons before that would be plenty good enough.

Helsley, age 31, was an All-Star in 2022 and 2024.

His 2024 saw him post an ERA of 2.04, a 1.101 WHIP while yielding just 0.4 homers per nine. Again, pretty darn good.

His impressive three-year run, even with his less than stellar 2025, might be one big reason while several teams pursued him via free agency. There were reportedly as many as 15 clubs looking at him per the Athletic.

And while the O’s signed him to a two-year deal for $28 million - the price coming down after last season - he has a player opt-out after 2026. Maybe the O’s needed to include the opt-out to help their deal rise to the top of his offers.

Helsley’s stuff is obviously closer quality. He has one of the highest-velocity fastballs in the game and a slider that produced whiff rates of 52.2 percent in 2023, 51.0 in 2024 and 41.6 last season.

In 2025, even with that 4.50 ERA, he recorded a chase rate among the top 21 percent in MLB along with a whiff rate in the top 21 percent and a grounder rate in the top 33. His fastball velocity was in the top one percent.

But even with outstanding velocity, his fastball has been hit harder over the last three years:

2023: Avg velo was 99.7, with a .224 avg against and .328 slugging against.

2024: Avg velo was 99.6 with .276 average and .367 slugging.

2025: Avg velo was 99.3 with .422 average and .667 slugging against.

Last year he threw that pitch very hard, but opponent batters hit it back very hard.

Not long after he signed with the Orioles in late November, Helsley told local O’s media that he simply pitched from behind in too many counts last year and batters were sitting on his heater.

“These guys at this level are really good. Just got to be better getting ahead. I wasn’t as good in New York at getting ahead as I was with St. Louis,” he said then.

Some speculated he was tipping pitches which hurt him as well.

After his July 30 trade to the Mets, New York coaches said they had “some stuff on him” meaning about his potentially tipping pitches. He tried to make the adjustments.

“Wasn’t until I switched my posture and switched my hands that you know it really started to click,” Helsley explained. “Obviously it was kind of a learning curve. An adjustment those first couple of outings trying to get used to my hands being there. It was so new. I had pitched the same way most of my career. I think I got that ironed out and that will be something that will help me throughout the rest of my career.”

Helsley was told by Mets coaches to lower his hands and keep them closer to his chest in his delivery to avoid pitch tipping. It took time for the changes to take hold, but he threw seven scoreless innings with the Mets to end his 2025 year.

His strong ending with New York could lead, the O’s hope, to him recapturing his 2024 form for the 2026 Orioles.

If he can do that, the O’s should be just fine in the closer’s role, even without a lot of deep depth in that area right now.