My take on how Adley Rutschman can return to being an elite hitter

Rutschman's combined OPS was .808 in 2022-2023 but was .709 last year

I am not a hitting coach and don’t even play one on TV. But I have poured over Adley Rutschman’s stats a few times since last season ended and have a few thoughts to share on how he can get back to being a top hitter once again.

First the math from last year when he was hitting .300 with an OPS of .830 on June 27. Had he finished at that mark he would have ended the 2024 season 12^th in the American League in OPS.

But he didn’t keep up that pace. Not close.

Starting the next game, Rutschman went hitless four straight games and a second-half slide was underway.

Over his last 71 games, after producing that .830 OPS to that point, he batted .189/.279/.280/.559 with just four home runs. The Orioles in those games went 32-39, further proof that Rutschman’s production is pretty big in their batting order.

His combined batting line for 2022 and 2023 was .268/.369/.439/.808 for an OPS+ of 129. Last season his batting line to end the year was .250/.318/.391/.709 for an OPS+ of 107.

He was still an above average hitter last summer, but just not showing the production of an All-Star hitter as he had previously.

Here is one man’s four-part plan for him to get back to his 2022 and 2023 batting levels.

Better bat path: It appears that the team made some winter adjustments with Rutschman on his bat path, which to the naked eye seemed to show more of an upper cut at times last year. Keeping the bat more level through the zone should be a plus here.

Rutschman’s flyball percentage was 38.4 in 2022 and then down to 34.6 before it shot up last season to 42.9

Get back to elite plate discipline: Rutschman saw 4.27 pitches per plate appearance in 2022 and 4.23 the next year, but fewer last season at 4.06.

He also walked considerably less. His walk percentage in 2022 was 13.8, in the 96^th percentile (top four percent of the majors). In 2023 it was 13.4 in the 91^st percentile, still elite. But last season it was 9.1 in the 62^nd percentile, no longer elite.

Also where he was in the top 18 percent in MLB in 2022 in the best chase rate and top 19 percent in 2023, he was only in the top 53 percent last year, a huge difference.

There were fewer walks and more chases. That tells a lot of this story.

Batting versus right-handers: It’s been a three-season drop here as Rutchman’s OPS off right-handers was .889 in 2022, .777 in 2023 and .631 last year. He went from All-Star to mediocre and the O’s need to help him fix this stat.

Be more aggressive on the first pitch: Rutschman swung at the first pitch just 14.5 percent of the time in 2022 and that dropped to 12.0 in 2023 and 10.4 last year. He took the first pitch almost nine out of 10 times. He led MLB last year in fewest percentage of first-pitch swings.

That is just begging the opposing hurler to lay one in there and go 0-1 in the count. On an 0-1 count last season Rutschman had a .473 OPS and it was .826 on the first pitch.

It’s time to let opponent pitchers know you may be swinging and ambush some opening at-bat pitches for damage.

For what it’s worth, the Orioles were among the best in the AL last year as a team when attacking the first pitch. They hit .355/.360/.612/.972.

They ranked tied for first in the league in batting average on the first pitch and were third in slugging and team OPS. It is working for your teammates Adley, so go get that first pitch when it’s to your liking.

Rutschman started the All-Star game last season and was 12^th in the AL MVP voting in 2022 and ninth in 2023. We have seen enough to know he can get back to that and it would be big for the 2025 O’s lineup and season.

He is having a solid spring and if that continues starting March 27, it will be very welcomed throughout Birdland.

A few quick O’s notes: Injured shortstop Gunnar Henderson hit on the field and went through defensive drills Monday morning in Sarasota. But he has not played in a game since Feb. 27 and time is running out to get him enough at-bats to be in the Opening Day Lineup.

We now know the O’s will face right-hander Jose Berrios of the Toronto Blue Jays in that opener March 27 at Rogers Centre. Berrios went 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA for Toronto last year when he was 0-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts versus Baltimore. Over his career, Berrios is 10-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Orioles.

Rutschman is a career .591 (13-for-22) batter versus Berrios with three home runs.

Coby Mayo took a 96 mph fastball off his right wrist in the game Monday in Fort Myers versus Boston. Luis Vazquez and Enrique Bradfield Jr. also got hit by pitches in that game but manager Brandon Hyde told reporters postgame that all three players should be fine.