What is an MLB draft model?
The Orioles are reportedly heavily reliant on their model
Later this week, the Orioles and 29 other MLB clubs will take part in the latest MLB Draft. The teams will select hundreds of players over 20 rounds of the draft.
Last year 615 players were selected in that draft. Of that total, 576 players signed contracts, so 93.7 percent.
Every year these drafted players help stock an organization’s minor league rosters as players begin their journey that they hope takes them to the majors.
How do teams decide which players to draft and in what order to do it?
Back in the day it was all about the scouts and their various opinions on various players.
Today it’s more complex than that. Much more in most cases.
Teams develop draft models and some teams rely heavily on the data provided by such models. The Orioles are said to be a “model-heavy” club.
When I interviewed Baseball America’s national writer Carlos Collazo recently on my Steve on Baseball podcast, I asked him about these draft models. What exactly is a draft model?
“I would say a draft model is just a way that teams are weighting various inputs that they perceive as valuable,” Collazo said. “So, most teams are using them now. There are only a handful of teams we’ve heard about that still don’t have them.
“It would be really surprising if just not every team in the near future had a model. Some teams are more reliant on the model than others. For example, the Baltimore Orioles are viewed as maybe one of the most model-heavy teams in the game.
“So, what that means is essentially you will run the model and it will line up your board based on all your inputs. Whether that’s performance data from college, whether that’s underlying batted ball data, things like exit velocity, launch angle, contact rates. All of these are input and weighted to different levels depending on what the org prioritizes. What they think is valuable. What they think is hard or difficult to develop at the next level. And that is kind of all put together to rank the players.”
So the compiled data, stats and notes all go into these models. And then there is the opinions of the scouts. What about a player’s work ethic and makeup? Will they work as hard as is needed? How will they handle slumps and struggles? Do they have what it takes that data can’t tell us about?
“Some models will also include the scouting grades from their scouting department, so all this is folded together,” Collazo explained further. “And some teams will have the model run, it will give them their board and they will not deviate from that on draft day. When we refer to a club as very model heavy, we often mean they are going to have their model (to set up their draft board), pick from that and not deviate much from that model.
“Other teams may have a model to reference, but they are drafting with their scouts. They are picking based on what the scouts in the room want to do. And so, different teams rely on it to varying degrees.
“I think, at least 25 teams, maybe more than that, have models in some capacity. What you are actually valuing and how you weigh the different inputs will separate one model from another.”
No doubt this is all proprietary to each club. They are just not going to tell us how heavily they rely on a model and what inputs they value the most here. Or how much they take the model data and then mix in the scouting reports and opinions.
O’s president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Elias may have first been exposed to draft models when he was an area scout with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards’ 2009 draft, using a model to blend with scouting reports, produced 10 future major league players. Most experts say the math now is such that, if a team gets two to three MLB players in 20 rounds, that is a good draft.
I asked Collazo if a perceived model-heavy team like the Orioles just ranks their board and essentially just picks the player next up when they select each round?
“I think that is the case,” he said. “This probably changes as you get further down the draft and things like signability come into play. You may have 10 players on your board and you check to see which player you can sign and you may have to move down and not just blindly take the next player. Teams want to be sure they can sign the players they take.
“But I do think, teams like the Orioles, like the Guardians and the Brewers would stand out to me as some of the more model-heavy clubs in the game at this stage.”
The Orioles have the No. 7 overall pick in Round One of Saturday’s draft. The first four rounds will be selected Saturday and Rounds 5 through 20 on Sunday.
The Orioles will also pick at No. 46, No. 82 and No. 110 on Saturday.
For even more on their draft prospects and outlook, you can check out my latest Steve on Baseball podcast right here with BA’s Collazo, who will be part of the live television coverage on Saturday. He provided a plethora of insight on the draft during this podcast.
ANOTHER LOSS AT THE YARD
The Orioles have followed a three-game win streak with three consecutive losses. And they could be swept at home today by the Chicago Cubs after Wednesday’s 9-7 loss.
There were nine homers hit in the game - five by the Cubs - as starter Dean Kremer allowed four homers and the O’s bullpen gave up five runs over four innings.
The Orioles had 14 hits and four of their own homers - two were pinch-hit homers - but they lost again.
Pete Alonso’s two-run homer in the fourth gave the O’s an early 3-1 lead. But the Cubs scored the next eight runs.
Alonso became the 21st player (28th occurrence) in Orioles history to hit at least 20 home runs before the All-Star break and the first since Gunnar Henderson (28) and Anthony Santander (24) in 2024. His 62 RBIs are the most before the break by an Oriole since Henderson (63) in 2024.
The Orioles have lost seven of 10 games and at 42-51 tie a season-low mark at nine games below the .500 mark.
The O’s, in consultation with MLB, moved today’s game from 6:35 p.m. to 1:35 p.m due to forecasted inclement weather. Gates will open at 1 p.m.
For more information, go to Orioles.com/weather.
I think some of our readers here would contend the O's have been poor at drafting. Yet they can put 6-7 homegrown players in their lineup every night and a few of them have been All-Stars. When you consider how hard it is for all teams to produce players, it might better than some feel.
My former MASN colleague Brendan Mortenson wrote this recently which is quite favorable on the O's drafting under Elias ----
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/entry/how-have-the-orioles-drafted-and-developed-homegrown-talent-since-2019/
It’s depressing when Opening Day, the trade deadline and who we get back and the draft are our highlights. I was born Dec 69. I was born in HavreDeGrace so I have Orioles in my blood, just like a famous player or 2. I will never give up on them. I moved to Florida in 1982. I must say last few nights when we have fallen behind, I have moved over to watch the Rays and Marlins both feel good stories this year. I invite you to watch the play of Xavier Edwards both at bat and at 2b and the hit tool of Otto Lopez. The hit tool of Arranda and Yandy Diaz.
Steve is one of the best in the business and I will always rabidly follow the Orioles, but for sanity I have started to watch some small ball teams. I wish we had an Otto Lopez or Yandy Diaz.