Did the O's rebuild fail?

With Adley Rutschman's trade, a key player from the talented young core moves on

There were fans saying, after the Orioles were shutout back-to-back games by the Phillies to fall four games under .500, “how could they now be buyers?”

So, as it turned out, the team did not buy.

That led to fans saying, “how could they sell?” and “How could they trade Adley?”

Here is how and why.

The team has failed to take a rebuild success that led to them going from worst to first, to postseason success. Any postseason success has eluded the Orioles - as in no wins and no series wins since 2014.

The rebuild, for me, was not a failure.

A team that lost 110 games in 2021 and finished 48 games out of first place – 48 games! – two years later won 101 games and a division championship.

If that is failure, sign me up for more of that.

Maybe we can say they failed to build on that. And we know they didn’t win a playoff game.

The 2022 Orioles won 83 games, finishing over .500 sooner than expected. Then they won 101 games and the AL East in 2023. On June 20, 2024 the O’s blew out the Yankees 17-5 in the Bronx. We were watching an actual “liftoff.”

On that date they were a half-game out of first place with a record of 49-25. They were on pace to win 107 games. Yep, 107. But they wound up winning only 91. In the playoffs they got swept two in a row by Kansas City, scoring one run total.

The rebuild produced a team that led the AL in wins over the combined 2023 and 2024 seasons. A team that had the No. 1 ranked farm system. A team that had three straight years producing the No. 1 ranked player in all of the minors. No other organization, per Baseball America, had ever done that.

They were riding high.

Until they weren’t.

It was pretty great. Until it was not.

From May 21, 2022 through June 20, 2024 and that blowout win in the Bronx, the Orioles went 217-141 (.608) for the third-best win percentage in baseball. But since that date, through last night, the Orioles have gone 173-191 (.475) for the eighth-worst record in MLB over that time.

A losing record and manager fired early in the 2025 season and a losing record in 2026.

So, trading players from that downturn was a mistake?

Were they supposed to keep doing more of the same?

For me something had to change. The young core that led the club to all those wins and two playoff appearances, didn’t collectively take further steps forward. So many players have, in fact, taken steps back. That is the failing for me if we want to use that word.

What went wrong here? Did player development not do enough? Were players rushed to the big leagues? Were players overhyped? Did players not work hard enough once they became top talents? And several did become that.

There were players with .800 plus OPS scores, MVP votes, All-Star appearances and Silver Slugger Awards.

And then came whatever has happened since late June in 2024.

We could ask 20 different O’s fans and get 20 different answers for how and why it went south so badly.

But it did and we can’t deny it.

The young core hasn’t progressed. This is a big problem. So they traded Adley and they are breaking up the band. It was time.

Most of that young core, of course, is still here and still has time to prove to Birdland they are as advertised. That they can, as individuals, or collectively, bounce back to top performance. But the winning run ended and now that group is coming up short.

The good news should be that this is not rebuild No. 2.

Call it a re-load, re-tool, re-boot, reset, whatever you want.

But numerous players are under contract control for several years, they’ve signed players to extensions and parts of their future are secure. Now they need to build around and supplement that.

SOME OF THE NEAR-TERM FUTURE IS ALREADY SET

They have at least three members of the 2027 rotation set already with Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Brandon Young and maybe lefty Trevor Rogers will stick around or get an extension to now call his own.

Maybe Jordan Westburg will return and be an All-Star again. Maybe Jackson Holliday is breaking out in front of our eyes. A lot of maybes in there but that is where this team is at right now. It’s not a good team and as they re-tool, re-load or whatever we call it, there are going to be some maybes along the way.

They added more pitching prospects on Monday. That was a smart move. Young pitchers are big currency in the game right now. All teams want that.

The O’s can use all this young pitching prospect talent to see who comes through to help them on their major league roster. And then who they might trade to help their MLB roster.

Young pitching can get you a player like …. well, Adley Rutschman.

They need some of the young pitchers to help their MLB staff. Will that be Luis De Leon or Trey Gibson or Joseph Dzierwa, Caden Hunter, Anthony Eyanson, Michael Forret or Kyson Witherspoon? Will others emerge?

We don’t know, but Brandon Young, kind of out of nowhere this year, became that for the Orioles. Bradish turned into a top pitcher on their watch.

I’ve been saying for about two years now that O’s pitching development is on the rise. That has held true. Now they’ve added to the core of pitching prospects.

On the updated MLBPipeline.com O’s top 30 after the trades, 12 of the O’s top 19 prospects are pitchers. In their top 30 they now have 15 pitchers.

For fun I checked the rest of the AL East. Boston now has 11 pitchers among its top 30 prospects, Tampa Bay has 12 of 30 and Toronto has 14. But the Yankees, gulp, have 20 pitchers among their top 30. Pretty impressive number.

As for the Orioles, they are not starting over. But they had to do something different. Losing since mid-year 2024 was not getting it done.

This was not just a bad homestand, series or bad month, it was a bad few years. Concerning of course.

Now they have made these deals. In the short term their rotation is in pretty good shape. Now the young core has to show us more and produce more. The pitching prospects will be used, they hope, to send some to Baltimore and for deals that will send other needed players to Baltimore.

O’s fans are down right now, a lot of them are.

The team management has to hope this passionate fanbase gives them another chance to try and show they can and will win again.

It could work.

Maybe.

---

WHAT THEY SAID

There was plenty of clubhouse reaction pregame yesterday from players still sorting out the last day or two and all the changes to their O’s roster.

Pete Alonso said the team put the front office in a tough spot with poor play: “Ultimately where we’re at, we have to look ourselves in the mirror and accept the consequences. Yes, we are out of a wild-card spot. Yes, our record is what it is. Like, coaches and front office, they are not out there playing. We are as players. For us, we needed to do a better job to kind of justify some things to be buyers. We didn’t necessarily earn that fully.”

Alonso on Mike Elias and what he said to the team: “The message he said is, ‘Still believe in you guys. We’re still a great team and the expectation is still to go to the playoffs.’”

Colton Cowser on Monday: “As a player you feel like, you know, you look inward and think there is probably a lot more we as players could have done to prevent something like that from happening. Just overall sucks to see a lot of our guys go. That is part of the game and you know, I guess it is something you look inward and you want to keep your best friends here. That is just how it panned out.”

Cowser on the emotions of Monday: “Just from the human side of it, it was tough. Pretty emotional day. The initial shock of it was something that was tough to see. Definitely some sadness there. All I could do is give him a hug and tell him I’m here for him and I love him. Obviously tough.”

Trevor Rogers on the final day of the deadline: “It was one of the longer days of my life. Just the trades that went down. Adley was a shock to me personally. He was the star of the rebuild here and had a lot of really good years.

“I was actually with (Tyler) Wells when he got the news. That was pretty tough for me. I love Wellsy. A good friend. He went to a team that is in first place and he will help them.”

Rogers on still being on the team: “You know when I saw Wardy go, (I thought) it’s most likely going to happen. Stayed by my phone all day. Thankfully it didn’t (ring) and I’m really happy to be here.”

Rogers, could this now lead to contract extension talks?: “At this point there are bigger fish to fry. We’re shooting for the playoffs and I’m really focused on that right now.”

---

Series-opening win: The Orioles beat the Los Angeles Angels 3-1 last night in the series opener, despite being out-hit 11-4.

Two of the O’s hits were a two-run single in the last of the third by Pete Alonso and a solo homer in the eighth from Tyler O’Neill.

Called up to make the start, lefty Cade Povich pitched six scoreless to outduel former Oriole Grayson Rodriguez, who allowed just two runs over seven innings.

Coupled with Cleveland’s loss to the Mets, the Orioles moved within 1.5 games of the third AL wild-card spot.

Classy exit: On his way out of town, to join Tampa Bay, righty Tyler Wells posted this classy message to O’s fans. Meanwhile in Boston, Adley Rutschman spoke with media at Fenway Park.