What would it take for the O's to get back in the wild card race?

O's likely need to play over .600 ball rest of way to get there

As they were set to open a new series in Sacramento against the Athletics Friday night, no city name needed right now, the Orioles were on a small roll.

A small roll can precede a bigger roll and rolling this team must get over a long stretch to get its season pointed back in the right direction.

Since the expansion of the MLB playoffs to 12 teams and six per league in 2022, an average of 87 wins was needed to earn the last of three American League wild-card berths.

In 2022, the sixth seed in the AL playoffs, getting the last wild card spot, was Tampa Bay with 86 wins. In 2023 the last team in was Toronto with 89 wins. Last year the last to the party, with 86 wins, was the Detroit Tigers.

So on average over those three years, a club needed 87 wins to make it. But in two of the last three years, 86 was enough.

So let’s do the math for the Orioles, heading into the A’s series with a record of 25-36 after a six-game win streak.

Pre Friday night, they need 62 more wins to get to 87. They had 101 games left at game time Friday, so they would need to go 62-39, playing .614 ball to get to 87 wins from 25.

A team playing .614 ball over the full year would win 99 games.

If the O’s say, could go 40-20 over their next 60 games, they would get into contention. That would put them at 65-57 with 40 games left. Can they do it? Yes they can. Are the odds very much against that? Yes they are.

But, we’re saying, there’s a chance.

If the Orioles get those 62 wins, they would finish 87-75 (.537) and that might be enough for a third straight playoff appearance. If not, they would probably be close and it would sure make the final months and weeks much more exciting.

In posting three straight winning years they won 83 games in 2022, playing .512 ball. They won 101 in 2023 and played .623 ball and last year won 91 playing .562 ball.

That is an average of 91.6 wins per season, over that 87-win marker. Of couse they had 162 games to get those numbers and didn’t have to step on the gas for 101 games as they have to do now.

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Win streak ends

The O’s still need 62 wins after Friday’s 5-4 loss to the Athletics. Losing pitcher Dean Kremer allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings.

Dylan Carlson and Jackson Holliday homered, but the O’s went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position.

Their six-game win streak ends.

Tonight in Sacramento, righty Charlie Morton (2-7, 6.20 ERA) faces right-hander Luis Severino (1-5, 4.54 ERA).

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Stellar pitching on the farm

Young Venezuelan right-hander Yeiber Cartaya delivered a big outing last night in Low-A Delmarva’s 2-1 win at Fredericksburg.

Coming on in relief he pitched 6 1/3 scoreless on two hits with eight strikeouts, throwing 80 pitches. Over his past four games he has allowed three runs over 19 2/3 innings.

In 11 games on the year he is now 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA.

I ranked Cartaya as the O’s No. 20 international prospect here on my Substack in March in this story and this was the report:

Signed for just $10,000 out of Caracas, Venezuela at age 19 on May 5, 2022, Cartaya is turning into a nice prospect for the Orioles. A pitcher that reduced his ERA each season since 2022, from 7.49 to 5.85 and last year to 2.92. In 2024 he pitched in 11 games in the FCL and six for Delmarva, going a combined 2-4 over 64 2/3 innings allowing 48 hits with 40 walks, 89 strikeouts and a .198 average against. Cartaya, now 22, had a 1.11 ERA in 24 1/3 innings for the Shorebirds with 31 strikeouts.

Cartaya’s fastball sits mid 90s and he has touched 97 and 98 mph. He has decent secondaries and his changeup is his second-best pitch currently while his slider is below average right now. He is expected to begin 2025 back with the Shorebirds and could quickly move to Aberdeen.